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nato[f81,jmc]		U.S.withdrawal from NATO

	35 years have past since the end of World War II.  Western
Europe has fully recovered economically and its GNP is now greater
than that of either the U.S. or the Soviet Union.  Nevertheless,
Western Europe is still dependent on the U.S. for defense, and
this situation shows now signs of change in the near future.  In
fact it appears that the Europeans intend to do even less for their
own defense.  Therefore, the U.S. should consider whether its
present policies are counter-productive.  Consider the following
option:

	1. The U.S. announces that it will withdraw from NATO in
five years and remove its troops, ships and planes from Europe.

	2. The money saved is to be spent on a large scale civilian
defense program in the U.S.       

	3. Sicne the Europeans are to be responsible for their own
defense, the U.S. abandons any objection to any Western European
possession of nuclear weapons including their possession by West
Germany.  In fact, the U.S. offers to sell the weapons stationed
in West Germany to West Germany.  Perhaps this offer should be
under the table in order to confront the Russians with a fait accompli.

	In analyzing the consequences of this policy, the first requirement
of knowledge is to admit ignorance.

	The best outcome would be that the Russians would be relieved,
and the Soviet Empire would continue to rot.

	The worst outcome is that the opportunity would tempt the
Russians who would occupy Western Europe and try to convert it into
an industrial base for conquering the rest of the world.  Unless
there was an unlikely fundamental change in the Soviet system,
the result would be a further over-extension of that system.  This
would be tough on the Europeans, but we could console ourselves with
the thought that they had brought it on themselves.

	We would then be frightened into creating Fortress America.

	Most likely, this option is on the whole inferior to the
present policy of trying to prop up NATO.  However, if the situation
in Europe gets much worse, i.e. if the European participation in
their own defense declines further, it may be necessary to adopt it.
Putting the option on the table by some prominent American political
force, perhaps even the Reagan Administration, might have a useful
effect in concentrating the minds of the Europeans.

	Similar considerations may apply to Japan.